EddyMcfreddy, pleasure to meet you all!

Hi All,

I recently discovered the little gems of Dirty Quant’s Youtube videos, starting with GARCH and from there watched most of them :smile:

I’m a Mech Eng by trade working in the Manufacturing Industry, but have taken some Financial Engineering courses back when I was in Uni. I started recently playing around in the markets, but have gotten quickly frustrated by the randomness of my own bets.

Remembering some of the courses in Financial Eng, I started looking around to see whether I can make some more quantitative decisions and hence stumbled upon Tino …

Cheers and keep up the good work all!

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Hey Eddy, nice to meet you and thanks for joining the party.

Glad you like the videos, at least someone watches them :wink:

The market is a cruel beast.
I like to think of investing as an exercise in regret management.

What sort of investing are you doing? Picking names you like randomly or some method to the madness?

There are a billion way to do things, and as long as you don’t bet the farm, you will usually learn something along the way.

Thanks for your contribution to the discussion, and look forward to interacting with you more.

Tino

Hi Tino - thanks, always enjoy a good party :smiley:

So far trying to figure out undervalued/unpopular stocks and playing the long game, but its as good as going betting on black in my opinion.

My interest would be Volatility trading, both in the coin space (chapeau for getting the BTC GARCH fit on my other post :wink: ) or “classical” markets. Any recommendations where to start?

Cheers and happy days,
Eddy

Hey Eddy,

Ha! The markets are a cruel best. With most capital amounts people are usually playing with, I am gonna suggest something very non sexy:
Buy the market ETF each month. Rinse and repeat until you are rich.

You got 2 big issues you are fighting against, transactions costs being a big % of your capital.
Bid-ask spreads being super wide on small stocks, and to a certain extent liquidity too, where unless you order manages to execute at the open or close, the market is very thin.

For most people who are trading figures in the thousands of dollars, the above is especially true.
Factor based strategies where you are longing and shorting 20-30 stocks each side, means you have to make 60 trades initially. This is just not feasible for a non-professional investor. How do you cut $2k 60 ways?
In terms of more advanced strategies which involve vol, you COULD go down the option path, and see what is over/under valued. A bit of fun for sure, and the bigger names and indexes should be pretty liquid.

For real, diversified strategies, you need to be operating in the $100m+ reals to even start, which for the vast majority of home traders, is not realistic.

Sorry I don’t have a magic bullet, but that’s the reality of it. I think that’s probably why crypto has been so successful with the home investor, or should that be speculator. The daily vol is abosolutely insane, so even with all the vast t-costs, you could either be dining on champagne by the end of the day and those costs are insignificant, you you lost so much, what’s an extra 2%.

So yeah, if you want a bit of excitement look into thematic ETFs, that have a basket of tech stocks, possible even leveraged, cannabis, nano tech, space tourism, you name it!

Hope that was somewhat informative.
Cheers,
Tino

Hi Tino - great answer and fully agree, ETFs have been my go to solution but gets a bit dull. My interest is less actually making the return, more learning how it works and writing some fun experiments/projects. Magic bullets would not be entertaining :wink:

Back of the envelope, at $0.50 - $1 transaction cost per trade (US market, DEGIRO), or for that matter 0.1% for crypto trades (Binance), that could theoretically open up some historical “professional” strategies for the retail investor? Or am I missing the boat completely ?

I usually find that if the cost per trade are very low, you are usually paying for it by the bid-asks being artificially wide compared to the true market, and/or likely the orders are being front run by the “Hedge Fund Arm” of the brokerage company.
Either way, if you can get a trade at $1, that seems very very good.

At those levels you can try a bit of momentum trading or something else fun like that.